Every figure on RBA Watch comes from a public source and a fixed method, set out here. Nothing is adjusted by hand, and the key points on each section are written by rules from the same numbers.
Today's cash rate target is read from the RBA's cash rate page every 30 minutes. Past decisions come from RBA tables F1 (the daily target) and A2 (every change since 1990). Both tables are published with a lag of a day or so, so a decision made since their last update is taken from the RBA's page.
The main source is ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures. Each contract settles on the average cash rate over one calendar month, and is priced as 100 minus that rate: a price of 95.40 implies an average of 4.60%.
A meeting splits its month in two: the days before the decision run at the current rate, the days after at whatever the RBA decides. Taking out the known part leaves the rate expected after the decision. This is the ASX's own method:
rate after = (contract rate − current rate × share of month before) ÷ share of month after
When a meeting falls near the end of its month, the share after is tiny and small price moves swing the answer wildly. Then the next month's contract is used instead, as long as no meeting falls in it: it covers only the rate after the decision.
The odds follow the ASX convention that the market prices a single 25 basis point move. An expected rate 6bp above today's reads as a 24% chance of a hike and a 76% chance of a hold. When more than one move is priced the odds of that direction cap at 100%.
Meetings are chained: the expected rate after one becomes the starting rate for the next. That gives the path on the interest rate forecast, with each meeting's odds read from the change at that meeting alone.
During trading the odds use the midpoint of the best bid and ask wherever the spread is 2 basis points or less, so they move through the day; elsewhere, and once the day's settlement prices are out after the 4.30pm close, the settlement. Each day's settlement curve is saved, and the odds history, the "vs 1 day / 1 week / 1 month" comparisons and the futures scorecard are built from those saved days, which start on Tuesday 29 September 2026. The ASX feed serves no history of its own.
Polymarket and Kalshi list markets on each RBA decision. For each outcome the price is the midpoint of the best bid and ask where both are quoted, otherwise the last trade. Outcomes are grouped into cut, hold and hike and scaled to add to 100%, the same basis as the futures. Kalshi's own site shows last-traded prices without scaling, so its figures can add to more than 100% and differ from ours.
The combined figure weights each market by the money traded on it, so a market with twenty times the volume counts twenty times as much. Both are much smaller than the futures market and are shown as a second opinion, not a replacement.
For every decision since February 2026, the scorecard compares what the RBA did with the probability each market put on it a week before, the day before, and at the last price before the 2.30pm announcement. A market "called it" when the outcome was its favourite.
The RBA's forecasts come from its Statement on Monetary Policy forecast archive, a workbook with every Statement's forecast table since November 2018. The latest Statement is compared with the one before it, and each past forecast with what happened. The list of the RBA's publications is read every 30 minutes from rba.gov.au: decision statements, minutes, the Statement, and speeches, media conferences and parliamentary testimony by the Governor, Deputy Governor, the Assistant Governor (Economic) and Monetary Policy Board members. News coverage is left out.
Economic data comes from the ABS Data API (consumer prices, the labour force, the Wage Price Index, national accounts and household spending), RBA tables G1 and G3 (inflation and inflation expectations), and Indeed's job postings index through FRED. It is refreshed every three hours and shown as each agency publishes it.
Market odds are what traders are pricing, not a forecast by this site or by economists. Futures prices can include a premium for risk, which tilts the implied rate slightly. The single-move convention reads a 50bp move as certainty of 25bp. The prediction markets are thinly traded and can move on small trades.
RBA Watch is an independent site. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the ASX, Polymarket or Kalshi, and nothing on it is financial advice. Common questions are answered on the FAQ.
Cash rate history · RBA forecasts · FAQ · How the numbers are worked out
Figures refresh every 30 minutes; last updated
08 Oct 2026, 07:03 Sydney time.
RBA Watch is an independent site. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by
the Reserve Bank of Australia, and nothing here is financial advice.