RBA forecasts: Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2026

Four times a year the Reserve Bank publishes its forecasts for inflation, jobs and growth in the Statement on Monetary Policy. These are from the August 2026 Statement, compared with May's.

The RBA's August forecasts have trimmed mean inflation at 3.3% by December 2026, back inside the 2–3% band by June 2027 (3.0%), and 2.4% by December 2028. That is down 0.2 points on the May forecast for December.
The June quarter trimmed mean came in at 3.6%, below the 3.8% the RBA forecast in May.
Unemployment is forecast at 4.8% by December 2028, against 4.6% in August.
The forecasts assume the cash rate at 4.4% in December 2026, from market pricing in early August; futures now imply 4.72% after the 8 December meeting.
The next Statement, with new forecasts, comes with the 3 November decision.

The forecasts

Forecast	Dec 2026	Jun 2027	Dec 2027	Jun 2028	Dec 2028
Headline inflation (CPI)	3.6 ▼0.4	2.8 ▲0.4	2.6 ▲0.2	2.4 ▼0.1	2.4
Trimmed mean inflation	3.3 ▼0.2	3.0 ▼0.1	2.6	2.4 ▼0.1	2.4
Unemployment rate	4.5 ▲0.2	4.6 ▲0.2	4.7 ▲0.1	4.8 ▲0.1	4.8
GDP growth	1.4 ▲0.1	1.5 ▲0.2	1.6 ▲0.2	1.6 ▲0.2	1.8
Wage growth (WPI)	3.3 ▲0.1	3.3 ▲0.1	3.1 ▼0.1	3.0	2.9
Cash rate assumption	4.4 ▼0.3	4.5 ▼0.1	4.5 ▼0.2	4.4 ▼0.3	4.4

Per cent, year-ended growth except the unemployment rate (quarterly average) and the cash rate. ▲▼ the change from the May Statement's forecast for the same quarter. From the RBA's forecast archive.

Forecasts against what happened

Every Statement's forecast path since 2022, against the outcome. Where the grey lines run below the navy one, the RBA expected less than it got.

Trimmed mean inflation. August 2026 forecast earlier forecasts actual · shaded: the 2–3% target band

Unemployment rate. August 2026 forecast earlier forecasts actual

How the forecasts for June 2026 turned out

Trimmed mean inflation for the June quarter came in at 3.6% (headline CPI 3.9%). The RBA first forecast that quarter in February 2024, at 2.6%. Every Statement since, newest first:

Statement	Trimmed mean forecast	Forecast − actual	CPI forecast
May 2026	3.8%	+0.2	4.8%
February 2026	3.7%	+0.1	4.2%
November 2025	3.2%	−0.4	3.7%
August 2025	2.6%	−1.0	3.1%
May 2025	2.6%	−1.0	3.1%
February 2025	2.7%	−0.9	3.2%
November 2024	2.7%	−0.9	3.1%
August 2024	2.7%	−0.9	3.2%
May 2024	2.6%	−1.0	2.6%
February 2024	2.6%	−1.0	2.6%

Points; below zero means inflation came in higher than the RBA forecast.

Common questions

When will inflation return to the RBA's target?

In the August Statement the RBA forecasts trimmed mean inflation back inside its 2–3% band by June 2027 (3.0%), and at the 2.5% midpoint by June 2028.

What cash rate do the RBA's forecasts assume?

The forecasts assume the cash rate moves as markets expected when they were finalised in early August: 4.4% by Dec 2026, 4.5% by Jun 2027, 4.5% by Dec 2027, 4.4% by Jun 2028, 4.4% by Dec 2028. It is an assumption, not a promise; the interest rate forecast has what markets price today.

When is the next Statement on Monetary Policy?

With the decision on Tuesday 3 November 2026, at 2.30pm Sydney time. The Statement comes out four times a year, with the February, May, August and November decisions. See the meeting dates.

Are these the RBA's or the market's forecasts?

The RBA's: prepared by its staff for the Monetary Policy Board. The odds and the expected path elsewhere on this site are the market's, from ASX futures.

Cash rate history · RBA forecasts · FAQ · How the numbers are worked out
Figures refresh every 30 minutes; last updated 08 Oct 2026, 07:03 Sydney time. RBA Watch is an independent site. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and nothing here is financial advice.