Markets expect the cash rate to be about 4.87% by December 2027, +27bp from today's 4.60% — roughly 1 hike priced. Along the way the path peaks at 4.92% (22 Jun 2027).
| Meeting | Expected rate | Odds of a move | From today |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | 4.66% | 22% hike | +6bp |
| 8 Dec 2026 | 4.70% | 16% hike | +10bp |
| 9 Feb 2027 | 4.80% | 41% hike | +20bp |
| 23 Mar 2027 | 4.85% | 21% hike | +25bp |
| 4 May 2027 | 4.91% | 23% hike | +31bp |
| 22 Jun 2027 | 4.92% | 5% hike | +32bp |
| 10 Aug 2027 | 4.91% | 3% cut | +31bp |
| 28 Sep 2027 | 4.91% | 3% cut | +31bp |
| 2 Nov 2027 | 4.89% | 4% cut | +29bp |
| 14 Dec 2027 | 4.87% | 10% cut | +27bp |
"Odds of a move" is the chance of a 25bp move at that meeting alone, on the ASX convention that the market prices one move at a time; "From today" adds up the meetings before it. Futures: live ASX prices, 1 Oct 2026 00:45.
Markets don't price a cut at any meeting through December 2027. They lean the other way: a hike is more likely than not by 9 Feb 2027.
On current pricing, a hike becomes more likely than not by the Tuesday 9 February 2027 meeting (expected rate 4.80%), and is fully priced by Tuesday 4 May 2027 (4.91%). The next meeting, 3 Nov 2026, carries a 22% chance.
The next decision is covered in detail on the next RBA meeting page, and the rate tracker charts how these expectations have changed day by day.
It is the path priced by ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures, not an economist's view. Each contract settles on the average cash rate over one month, so the rates they imply, month by month, show where traders with money on the line expect the cash rate to be after each meeting. Bank economists publish their own forecasts, which can differ; the market path moves every day with the data.
Figures refresh every 30 minutes; last updated 01 Oct 2026, 00:45 Brisbane time. RBA Watch is an independent site. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and nothing here is financial advice.