The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board meets on 3–4 May 2027. The cash rate decision is announced at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday 4 May 2027, in 209 days, and the Governor holds a media conference at 3.30pm. The RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy, with its updated forecasts, is released at the same time.
The cash rate is currently 4.60%.
ASX 30-day interbank futures imply a cash rate of 4.88% after this meeting: +6bp at the meeting itself, and +28bp from today's 4.60% counting the 4 meetings before it.
The odds are for a move at this meeting alone, on the ASX convention that the market prices one move at a time.
| ASX close | Expected rate | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 6 Oct | 4.88% | 75% hold, 25% hike |
| Mon 5 Oct | 4.88% | 82% hold, 18% hike |
| Fri 2 Oct | 4.88% | 82% hold, 18% hike |
| Thu 1 Oct | 4.94% | 75% hold, 25% hike |
| Wed 30 Sep | 4.91% | 77% hold, 23% hike |
| Tue 29 Sep | 4.95% | 75% hold, 25% hike |
ASX 30-day interbank futures at each day's close, as saved by this site since 29 Sep 2026. The rate tracker charts the next meeting's odds through the day.
2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday 4 May 2027. That is 2.30pm in Brisbane, 2pm in Adelaide, 2pm in Darwin and 12.30pm in Perth; Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart share Sydney's time.
On current pricing, ASX futures put the chance of a hike at 25%, a cut at 0% and no change at 75%, so a hold is the likelier outcome. The odds move every day with the data; this page updates every 30 minutes.
From ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures, which settle on the average cash rate over each month. The rate they imply for after the meeting, against the rate before it, gives the chance of a 25bp move: the same method as the ASX's own RBA Rate Tracker.
Figures refresh every 30 minutes; last updated 07 Oct 2026, 06:04 Sydney time. RBA Watch is an independent site. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and nothing here is financial advice.