The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board meets on 7–8 December 2026. The cash rate decision is announced at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday 8 December 2026, in 62 days, and the Governor holds a media conference at 3.30pm.
The cash rate is currently 4.60%.
ASX 30-day interbank futures imply a cash rate of 4.71% after this meeting: +4bp at the meeting itself, and +11bp from today's 4.60% counting the 1 meeting before it.
The odds are for a move at this meeting alone, on the ASX convention that the market prices one move at a time.
| ASX close | Expected rate | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 6 Oct | 4.71% | 82% hold, 18% hike |
| Mon 5 Oct | 4.68% | 86% hold, 14% hike |
| Fri 2 Oct | 4.68% | 87% hold, 13% hike |
| Thu 1 Oct | 4.72% | 80% hold, 20% hike |
| Wed 30 Sep | 4.70% | 84% hold, 16% hike |
| Tue 29 Sep | 4.75% | 81% hold, 19% hike |
ASX 30-day interbank futures at each day's close, as saved by this site since 29 Sep 2026. The rate tracker charts the next meeting's odds through the day.
2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday 8 December 2026. That is 1.30pm in Brisbane, 2pm in Adelaide, 1pm in Darwin and 11.30am in Perth; Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart share Sydney's time.
On current pricing, ASX futures put the chance of a hike at 17%, a cut at 0% and no change at 83%, so a hold is the likelier outcome. The odds move every day with the data; this page updates every 30 minutes.
From ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures, which settle on the average cash rate over each month. The rate they imply for after the meeting, against the rate before it, gives the chance of a 25bp move: the same method as the ASX's own RBA Rate Tracker.
Figures refresh every 30 minutes; last updated 07 Oct 2026, 06:04 Sydney time. RBA Watch is an independent site. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and nothing here is financial advice.