The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board meets on 2–3 November 2026. The cash rate decision is announced at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday 3 November 2026, in 27 days, and the Governor holds a media conference at 3.30pm. The RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy, with its updated forecasts, is released at the same time.
The cash rate is currently 4.60%. More on the next RBA meeting.
ASX 30-day interbank futures imply a cash rate of 4.66% after this meeting, +6bp from today's 4.60%.
Prediction markets (Polymarket and Kalshi, weighted by money traded) have it at 83% hold, 16% hike, 1% cut.
| ASX close | Expected rate | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 6 Oct | 4.66% | 76% hold, 24% hike |
| Mon 5 Oct | 4.64% | 82% hold, 18% hike |
| Fri 2 Oct | 4.65% | 80% hold, 20% hike |
| Thu 1 Oct | 4.67% | 71% hold, 29% hike |
| Wed 30 Sep | 4.66% | 78% hold, 22% hike |
| Tue 29 Sep | 4.71% | 58% hold, 42% hike |
ASX 30-day interbank futures at each day's close, as saved by this site since 29 Sep 2026. The rate tracker charts the next meeting's odds through the day.
2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday 3 November 2026. That is 1.30pm in Brisbane, 2pm in Adelaide, 1pm in Darwin and 11.30am in Perth; Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart share Sydney's time.
On current pricing, ASX futures put the chance of a hike at 26%, a cut at 0% and no change at 74%, so a hold is the likelier outcome. The odds move every day with the data; this page updates every 30 minutes.
From ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures, which settle on the average cash rate over each month. The rate they imply for after the meeting, against the rate before it, gives the chance of a 25bp move: the same method as the ASX's own RBA Rate Tracker.
Figures refresh every 30 minutes; last updated 07 Oct 2026, 06:04 Sydney time. RBA Watch is an independent site. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and nothing here is financial advice.