At its meeting on 28–29 September 2026, the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%. The decision was announced at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday 29 September 2026.
The cash rate was 4.35% going into the meeting. It is 4.60% today.
The day before the decision, Polymarket put 99% and Kalshi 94% on what the RBA did.
| Market | A week before | The day before | Final price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 97% ✓ | 99% ✓ | 99% ✓ |
| Kalshi | 94% ✓ | 94% ✓ | 94% ✓ |
The probability each market put on what the RBA actually did; ✓ where it was the market's favourite. The final price is the last before the 2.30pm announcement. See the rate tracker's scorecard for every meeting.
Figures refresh every 30 minutes; last updated 07 Oct 2026, 06:04 Sydney time. RBA Watch is an independent site. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and nothing here is financial advice.