At its meeting on 10–11 August 2026, the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%. The decision was announced at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday 11 August 2026. The Statement on Monetary Policy, with the RBA's updated forecasts, was released at the same time.
The cash rate was 4.35% going into the meeting. It is 4.60% today.
The day before the decision, Polymarket put 100% and Kalshi 95% on what the RBA did.
| Market | A week before | The day before | Final price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 99% ✓ | 100% ✓ | 98% ✓ |
| Kalshi | 94% ✓ | 95% ✓ | 95% ✓ |
The probability each market put on what the RBA actually did; ✓ where it was the market's favourite. The final price is the last before the 2.30pm announcement. See the rate tracker's scorecard for every meeting.
Figures refresh every 30 minutes; last updated 07 Oct 2026, 06:04 Sydney time. RBA Watch is an independent site. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and nothing here is financial advice.