At its meeting on 4–5 May 2026, the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%. The decision was announced at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday 5 May 2026. The Statement on Monetary Policy, with the RBA's updated forecasts, was released at the same time.
The cash rate was 4.10% going into the meeting. It is 4.60% today.
The day before the decision, Polymarket put 95% on what the RBA did.
| Market | A week before | The day before | Final price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 85% ✓ | 95% ✓ | 90% ✓ |
The probability each market put on what the RBA actually did; ✓ where it was the market's favourite. The final price is the last before the 2.30pm announcement. See the rate tracker's scorecard for every meeting.
Figures refresh every 30 minutes; last updated 07 Oct 2026, 06:04 Sydney time. RBA Watch is an independent site. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and nothing here is financial advice.